Why The Sixers Will Be Better This Year

I’ve heard recently on a number of shows how the Sixers will decline this year (Looking at you Bill Simmons). Truth be told, I understand the sentiment, they lost out on the Lebron, Kawhi, or PG13 sweepstakes and had an underwhelming offseason. But, missing out on free agents doesn’t mean you decline. The other factor people point to is the loss of Marco Belinelli and Ersan Ilyasova. Let’s take that in for a second. The Sixers will definitively lose more games or take a step back in the playoffs because they lost…Marco Belinelli and Ersan Ilyasova. Those two were, at best, their 6th and 7th men last season. Keep in mind Belinelli was also played completely off the court in the Eastern Conference Semi Finals vs Boston last season and Ersan was hardly relevant. Additionally, Marco was only in a Sixers uniform for 28 games last year and Ersan 23. Yes, they helped contribute to that 16 game win streak to end the season (which they only faced only 3 playoff teams), but Embiid wasn’t even in for most of those games, so whatever impact they had would be largely replaced by having a top 10 player on the court. I don’t want to say that losing those two is irrelevant because when Marco was knocking down 3’s he certainly helped stretched the floor and Ersan did a lot of little things on the court and was a glue guy, but come on, let’s not overstate those two. They picked them up off waivers after the trade deadline for a reason.

One thing I think people drastically underestimate in the NBA is player development. Players break for the offseason but are constantly working on their games. The greats will try to add one or two new moves or pieces to their game every offseason in order to make them more complete players. This is even more true for young players. Joel Embiid had his first offseason in just about forever where he was healthy and able to work on his game. How come nobody talks about this? Embiid working on say, passing out of the post when the double teams are coming and his conditioning will be perhaps more important than the addition of most players. I read this week that Embiid has played less than 200 basketball games. No, not NBA games, basketball games in general. Think about how crazy that is for a second. If he was born in the US he may have played thousands by now. His room for growth is so high and his improvement from year to year will undoubtedly pay big dividends for this team.

Then of course we have the rest of the non-Embiids. Covington adding at least one move off the dribble, which he reportedly has, will make him a much better offensive threat. Dario working on his footwork and foot speed so he can’t get crushed on the defensive end will make him more playable against more athletic teams. Dario already showed significant increase in his 3pt% from 31.3% his rookie year to 39.3% this past season. Think about that, that’s almost a completely different player. Covington increased from 33.3% two years ago to 36.9% last year. Again, in addition to their other moves they’ve been working on, what if they each increase by 1.5-3% on their 3pt%. That is a significant improvement for two guys that will be chucking up a ton of 3’s. I think Dario has the better chance at that since he’s still only in his 3rd year and shot over 40% for the last 53 games last year once he found his groove and fit in the system. Role player improvement will make this team even more lethal in different areas of the game.

The role players may be important, but the two guys we haven’t even gotten to are perhaps the most important pieces. Let’s start with Markelle Fultz. Make no mistake about this, Fultz has been a massive bust so far in his NBA career or lack thereof. We won’t rehash what happened to him mentally or physically, but it was a complete disaster. I watched almost every minute of every game last year and even though Fultz season was a disaster due to his lack of play, I couldn’t help but marvel at some things he did in the limited time he was on the court. First, he is athletically absolutely an NBA player. His athleticism is freakish at times. Even though he wasn’t a threat from more than 2 feet away from the basket, he still showed skills that got me pretty excited. First and foremost, defensively. He has tremendous length and it showed in his limited time. He had no trouble switching on screens and had a knack for deflections, steals and blocks. In his college career and what we’ve seen from him so far, I think he can make a difference on the defensive end immediately for this team. He was also very good at getting to the rim, although not as great at finishing. If he is shooting the way he has been in the preseason he will be a bigger upgrade than anything Belinelli or Ilyasova gave this team. The Sixers got beat by the Celtics largely in part for their lack of 2 way players. Belinelli, JJ, Dario are all liabilities to some degree defensively. Covington was the reverse.The Celtics found those defencies and attacked them at will. It’s ok to have one of those guys but multiple makes it hard, especially in a series when teams are game planning hard. If Fultz can be a two way player, this team is going to be significantly better on the defensive end and more versatile offensively given their lack guards who can score at 3 levels.

All this and we haven’t even gotten to Ben Simmons. It took Ben a little bit of time to get acclimated to the league last year and that was with a grueling schedule out of the gate for the first two months. I expect Ben to pick up right where he left off last year. A hugely underrated defender and elite passer of the basketball. He will fill out the stat sheet every night. Of course with Ben, the shot is his achilles heel. He already came out and set expectations of not shooting three pointers at all this year, but will he shoot at all? He needs to be confident in hitting 15-18 footers on a consistent basis just to keep the defense honest. His free throw form looks much better than a year ago, so that should eliminate some of the hack a Simmons situations he saw last year and should make him more comfortable going to the rack and seeking fouls. But the shot is really everything. Inevitably, teams will do what Boston did last year and dare him to shoot. Heck, they may even do it opening night. If he’s not ready to shoot mid range jumpers it could be a long year or another rough playoff run. Now having said that, if he is hitting those mid rangers enough to force the defense to adjust, his game will be at a completely different level as will the teams.

While improvements to young players talented players can’t be overlooked, we obviously have to take peak at a couple of the newcomers. Let’s start with Wilson Chandler, the former Nugget the team traded for this past summer. Chandler isn’t going to start for this team, but is still a very important piece for them. As previously noted, the Sixers lost that Celtics series in large part to not having two way players in both their starting lineup and coming off their bench. Chandler will help immediately on both sides of the ball. He is a capable defender, especially for the minutes they will ask of him, and can knock down an open shot if the opportunity arises. Additionally, he may not be elite, but he can create a little bit offensively, something their bench lacked almost entirely last year. I really believe if he can stay healthy this will have been an under the radar acquisition that has the potential to pay big dividends. Maybe he only plays 20-25 minutes a night, but having a guy that is a proven NBA player that isn’t a complete liability on one end of the floor (cough Belinelli cough) will be a sure fire upgrade.

Next up on the newly acquired list is former Hawk Mike Muscala. Muscala probably won’t move the needle either way for the Sixers, but they like to have a big that can shoot and stretch the floor off the bench and that is what Muscala will be for them. Kind of like how they used Ersan last year, but probably with less of the little attributes that Ersan brought. Muscala is a career 38% 3pt shooter and if he can maintain that this year, it should open up lanes while Joel is on the bench, or even occasionally if they are in together. Sticking Embiid in the post and getting as many shooters around him is certainly one way to burn teams.

Finally, we get to a couple of rookies. First, Zhaire Smith, the guard the Sixers traded back in the first round to take. I really like Zhaire’s potential in the NBA. He is currently injured because he is a Sixers first round pick and has to pay his dues, but the team expects him back sometime around late December or early January. Watching some of his highlights last season as well as watching his action in summer league, I think Zhaire will be a defensive factor right away off the bench. His shot doesn’t look as bad as people say it is and I don’t think it will be a massive liability for him this season. I could see him being a defensive energy guy off the bench that uses his athleticism more than his skill offensively. Zhaire has instincts for finding open lanes, something that will bode well for him as he plays with excellent passers such as Simmons, Dario, TJ and Markelle. It looked like in summer league his teammates didn’t have the talent to actually get him the ball, but that won’t be a problem when the real games come around. If he at least shoots open 3’s it will help his way onto the court even faster. Long term if he can keep improving the shot at the rate that he has been, he could be a very talented two way player. The other rookie, Landry Shamet, will have a hard time cracking the rotation, but so far, I’ve liked his shooting ability off the bench. The stroke is beautiful, quick and lethal. He seems comfortable getting to the rack also. Defensively he was seen as a liability coming into the draft, but so far, through 4 preseason games (yes insanely small sample size) he has held his own on that end. If he can indeed not be a complete zero defensively he could potentially squeeze out a few minutes a night off the bench or more depending on how they rest guys throughout the year.

Obviously, there are a lot of twist and turns in an NBA season. Injuries will play a huge factor in how this, and any, team play throughout the year. But, if they stay relatively healthy, as they did last year, there is no doubt in my mind that this team is better than last years. Their additions have been subtle but replacing two way players for guys that got taken advantage of in the postseason has to be beneficial. 52 wins is a lot for a young team and it may have taken a 16 game win streak to get there last season, but they could absolutely end up in that same spot again this year or better. Remember their top 6 or 7 guys from last year are back and they don’t have to take time getting major new pieces acclimated like they did last year. This was a team that was below .500 at Christmas last year before they got rolling and I don’t expect that kind of start again this year. Add in the fact that the East may be even worse than last year and I think they should be ok. Even if they win a few less games this year, I think their style will be improved and they will be a tougher out come playoff time.

By Peter Gumas