Early this morning, 2:17 to be more precise, the Sixers and Clippers agreed on a blockbusterish trade sending Tobias Harris, Boban Marjanovic (Boban) and Mike Scott from LA to Philly and sending back Landry Shamet, Mike Muscala, Wilson Chandler, a 2020 top 10 protected first round pick, Miami’s 2021 fully unprotected first round pick as well as two second rounders. My first reaction when I saw the Woj bomb was, what the hell, it’s 2:17 in the morning, who is screwing with me? But having time to mull it over and study the trade I’ve come to a few conclusions.
First, I can’t say it’s a slam dunk deal for Philly (I do believe it is for LA). Just can’t do it. Not yet. Giving up the rookie sharpshooter, Shamet, isn’t the worst loss in the world and the Sixers 2020 pick is going to be mid to late 20’s so that pick has little value as well. The Miami 2021 pick is completely up in the air, they could fall apart quickly, but Pat Riley is not the losing type, it’s more likely they remain somewhere in the middle or make some splash via free agency or trades. Muscala and Chandler are essentially throw-ins that, at least in my mind, get somewhat mitigated by Mike Scott and Boban. None of those picks or players are worth holding onto for a guy shooting 43.4% from three and is in the 95th percentile for catch and shoot threes, especially given the fact that he will have a plethora of open looks due to sharing a court with Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons.
So what is holding me up? Well, for one thing, all three guys acquired will be free agents after the year. That is off-putting to me. I want Tobias Harris for the long-term, he is the perfect floor spacing 4 to play alongside the teams other two budding stars and I have to believe that Elton Brand at least spoke to Harris or his agent about signing long term before pulling the trigger on this trade. But make no mistake about it, even if Brand spoke with Harris or his reps, handshake deals are just that. No pen, no paper. Ask Celtics fans how they are feeling about their handshake deal with Kyrie. Teams get knocked out in the playoffs, players get left with a bad taste in their mouth and all of sudden they want out. So what if the Sixers get bumped in 4 or 5 games in the second round of the playoffs and Harris and/or Butler wants out. That would be a doomsday scenario. Theoretically, in that scenario, the Sixers just used the majority of their remaining war chest on three one year rentals. Yes, they will still absolutely have cap flexibility, but there is a zero guarantee that they can sign anyone substantial with that space. More teams have space this year than there are players to take it up. Philly can keep rolling over the cap space with one year deals, but then you are wasting MVP caliber seasons out of Embiid, you need to look no further than a guy down in New Orleans to see how wasting a players prime makes them feel. Even though none of the parts in themselves were that great, it just seemed like a bit of an overpay.
Now for the flip side, this trade could pay off with flying colors. What I keep coming back to is Mike McDermott in the movie Rounders. The end poker game, where he defeats Teddy KGB the first time, gets up to walk away and Teddy goads him into another game. Mike then utters the famous line, “you can’t lose what you don’t put in the middle, but you can’t win much either.” That is where the Sixers are at. Their chips are all on the table already, the investment has been made through years of tanking, drafting, trading and other transactions. You have three stars, the conference is up for grabs, but you are just a hair behind the other three teams ahead of you. So why not take the rest of your chips, splash the pot and go all in? There’s always a time where teams need to go for it. Good teams come and go, so I can’t blame it when Brand recognizes his team is already good but wants to make them great. When you sit and wait there is literally no guarantee of anyone becoming available. Make the moves when you can.
As it sits today, the Sixers will boast potentially the best starting lineup in the Eastern Conference and depending what else happens with the trade deadline, they could be in a position to challenge any team in the East for the crown. Harris could fit like a glove as a guy that can sit in the corner and nail three after three as well as create on his own during stretches where Embiid and/or Butler are out of the game. Sure the team may have nobody to cover opposing guards, but how do those guards cover the height mismatch the Sixers will boast? He could love his time, enjoy the playoffs, sign an extension and this team could have a core three or four that can compete for the East for the foreseeable future. Or it could all go terribly wrong. For now, as a diehard fan of this team, I’ll be happy to sit wait and watch competitive playoff basketball hopefully well into May or June and if all else fails the team still has Jojo.
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